Tuesday, December 7, 2010

President Pragmatist



Obama is passionate about being a pragmatist and he refuses to get drawn into the trap of focusing on tactics over strategy. He has a goal of what direction he wants to move the country in, and he is willing to start small and to build piece by piece because knows that throughout history many of America's greatest achievements started small and built bit by bit till they became core pillars of our system. Andrew Sullivan has it right in his assessment of Obama's tax cut deal

Obama has secured - with Republican backing - a big new stimulus that will almost certainly goose growth and lower unemployment as he moves toward re-election. If growth accelerates, none of the current political jockeying and Halperin-style hyper-ventilation will matter. Obama will benefit - thanks, in part, to Republican dogma. So here's something the liberal base can chew on if they need some grist: how cool is it that Mitch McConnell just made Barack Obama's re-election more likely? Bet you didn't see that one coming, did you?

The mix of policies is also shrewd from a strategic point of view.

At some point, I suspect, the Congress will have to decide between extending the payroll tax holiday or keeping the Bush tax cuts for millionaires - the double-track of the current Keynesian deal. I think Obama wins on that one, and has set up the kind of future choice the GOP really doesn't want to make. What he has done, in other words, is avoid an all-out fight over short-term taxes and spending now in the wake of a big GOP victory in order to set up the real debate about long-term taxes and spending over the next two years, leading into a pivotal 2012 election that could set the fiscal and political direction of this country for decades, an election in which he may well have much more of an advantage than he does now.

This is the difference between tactics and strategy. The GOP has won again on tactics, but keeps losing on strategy. More broadly, as this sinks in, Obama's ownership of this deal will help restore the sense that he is in command of events, and has shifted to the center (even though he is steadily advancing center-left goals). It's already being touted as "triangulation" by some on the right even as it contains major liberal faves - unemployment insurance for another 13 months, EITC expansion, college tax credits, and a pay-roll tax cut.

My view is that if this deal is a harbinger for the negotiation Obama will continue with the GOP for the next two years, he will come into his own.

What you realize if you pay attention is that Obama is not looking at things the same way as everyone else. He is looking at where he wants to lead the country, what he is able to do in the present to get the country closer to realizing his vision for it, and lastly, what does history tell him about the nature of change in America, and how does that inform his decisions in the present and his vision for the future. You can call it whatever you want, but before he's out of office he'll have run circles around most everyone in Washington, and I think the country will be better for it.

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